Trump’s stated positions on tech policy—along with the influence of close advisors like Elon Musk, a high-profile supporter during his campaign—provide insight into what a second Trump administration might mean for issues like AI, antitrust, and semiconductors.
Antitrust
Trump’s re-election is likely to bring substantial changes in antitrust policy, especially in tech. For one, Trump is expected to deregulate the cryptocurrency sector, which has rallied in response to his victory. Another likely change is the removal of Lina Khan, the head of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), who is known for her aggressive stance on Big Tech. Appointed by President Biden, Khan brought a fresh, stringent approach to antitrust by focusing on the influence tech giants wield beyond consumer prices. Her departure could shift the FTC’s priorities, reducing scrutiny of major corporations.
The Trump administration originally launched several high-profile antitrust cases, including one against Google that resulted in a landmark ruling against the tech giant. Biden’s Justice Department has even weighed a potential Google breakup, which Trump’s administration might continue pursuing. Trump’s FTC also initiated a case against Amazon over its impact on competition, an action that could continue to reverberate under his renewed leadership. While Khan’s legacy is uncertain, Trump’s stated disfavor for Big Tech, including criticisms of platforms like Facebook and Google, could shape the FTC’s future moves.
Artificial Intelligence
AI regulation is another area where Trump’s second term could lead to policy rollbacks. During his campaign, Trump pledged to repeal Biden’s 2023 executive order aimed at overseeing AI development. Advisors like Marc Andreessen, a prominent investor, share Trump’s laissez-faire approach, opposing restrictive AI policies. This approach could mean fewer checks on AI-related corporate activity, raising concerns among experts. Sandra Wachter of the Oxford Internet Institute warns that unregulated AI could harm human rights, exacerbate misinformation, and contribute to climate impact due to AI’s energy demands.
Elon Musk is expected to have significant sway in AI and related fields, including electric vehicles, space exploration, and biotech. Trump has suggested that Musk might oversee a reorganization of the federal government, which could open doors for Musk’s companies, including xAI, to benefit from federal resources. In parallel, companies like Meta, which recently announced plans to supply the U.S. military with its Llama AI models, may face an uncertain future in dealing with the Trump administration. Further complicating the AI landscape is Musk’s rivalry with OpenAI, a firm partially funded by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s family capital firm, Thrive Capital. Trump’s administration could either curb or enhance support for certain AI ventures depending on political and personal dynamics.
On a broader scale, Trump’s isolationist policies may indirectly benefit China by allowing it greater influence in AI development on the global stage.
China and Semiconductors
Trump’s approach to China could significantly impact the semiconductor industry, affecting sectors from automotive to artificial intelligence. Though Biden’s administration has already taken a hard stance on China—blocking AI chip exports and hampering China’s ability to develop advanced chips—Trump may escalate tensions, potentially sparking a trade war. This would have far-reaching consequences for companies that depend on Chinese manufacturing, including Apple and other tech giants.
Taiwan, a major chip manufacturer, could also be affected. Trump’s potential reduction in U.S. military support for Taiwan has raised concerns that he might use Taiwan’s security as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with China. Any shift in Taiwan’s status could reshape the global chip supply chain, given the country’s critical role in semiconductor manufacturing.
Trump has also criticized Biden’s CHIPS Act, which incentivizes domestic chip production, and suggested that tariffs would be a better solution. How his administration would achieve these goals remains uncertain, but a tariff-based strategy could disrupt supply chains in unexpected ways.
Social Media and Privacy
Trump’s stance on social media regulation and data privacy is complex and evolving. While he once advocated banning TikTok due to its Chinese ownership, he recently reversed his position after meeting with major TikTok investor Jeff Yass. With the passage of a bipartisan bill pushing for ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a U.S. ban, Trump’s return to power could see a re-evaluation of this stance.
During his first term, Trump sought to amend Section 230 of the Communications Act, a law that protects social media companies from liability for user-generated content. Many Republicans support changes to Section 230, viewing it as a tool to counter perceived censorship of conservative views. Trump’s new administration could re-open discussions on how social platforms are regulated, potentially altering the digital landscape significantly.
Internationally, Trump’s impact on U.S.-EU data-sharing agreements could also influence tech companies. The EU recently approved the latest Data Privacy Framework, which governs transatlantic data transfers. However, European regulators will review this deal periodically, and any misuse of data by U.S. agencies could jeopardize the framework, affecting U.S. tech firms operating in Europe.
In Summary
A second Trump presidency would likely mean a hands-off approach to tech regulation, particularly in emerging fields like AI and cryptocurrency. His stance on China could have unpredictable effects on global trade, especially in semiconductors. Meanwhile, his influence over social media laws and data privacy agreements with the EU will keep tech companies vigilant. With Musk and other high-profile allies, Trump’s administration could reshape the tech sector in ways that reflect a broader preference for deregulation and corporate flexibility, setting up new challenges and opportunities for innovation and competition.
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